Mls · resolved market
Will FC Dallas vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22122d5a6def65a70263530836e90cfb41a0dfea0606e4d1255ddcf536571eec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,561 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 1,436$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.08 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 68c | 1,267$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.12 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 1,146$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.72 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 74c | 1,054$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.32 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Yes | 26c | 905$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.3 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 54c | 462.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.94 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes | 26c | 402$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 290.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 27c | 228$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 198$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed No | 77c | 194$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed No | 76c | 194$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 73c | 193$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…f0efbacked No | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 23c | 178.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 20c | 137.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 18c | 133.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 32c | 126.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 70c | 124.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 53c | 117$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Yes | 21c | 110.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b9…20a7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 72c | 98.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 21c | 93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Yes | 24c | 88.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 64c | 81.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 54c | 80.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 43c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Yes | 28c | 61.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 39c | 55.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 75c | 47.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…4795backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 45c | 29.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 60c | 27.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 67c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Dallas vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.