Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22141ad6b3e6110cabc7f9cd02ab17428151a594edc3501ee7d95b558dc36490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brandon Nakashimaof Brandon Nakashima, Camilo Ugo Carabelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,174 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 0c | 9,164$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 9c | 8,651$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.93 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 0c | 8,248$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 10c | 4,256$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.1 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 19c | 2,331$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.36 | 284 | 44.7%127 W · 157 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 12c | 2,145$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 19c | 2,140$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 17c | 1,811$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.66 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b4…150ebacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 20c | 1,190$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 149 | 47%70 W · 79 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 16c | 920.37$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 17c | 846.58$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.04 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 17c | 610.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 145 | 41.4%60 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 19c | 526.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 19c | 499.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 8c | 349.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 9c | 346.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 10c | 319.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…b08bbacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 17c | 311.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 20c | 309$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 11c | 252.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…6af2backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 128 | 35.2%45 W · 83 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 18c | 233.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…9f40backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 19c | 199.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 10c | 198.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…0975backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 7c | 193.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 17c | 176$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 18c | 166.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 321 | 47%151 W · 170 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 7c | 161.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 20c | 125.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 19c | 113.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Brandon Nakashima | 80c | 111.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 18c | 107.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 12c | 95.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 439 | 51.9%228 W · 211 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 18c | 74.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 19c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Brandon Nakashima | 80c | 66.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…a5eebacked Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 599 | 54.9%329 W · 270 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.