Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2268c86fac8d71310b8ed7438b711c7b0470aa6c9e5d9f984c1a64168498da6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Augsburgof FC Augsburg, Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked FC Augsburg | 44c | 1,111$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.44 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 72c | 997$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.84 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 68c | 921.9$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.44 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Augsburg | 33c | 842.27$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.61 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed FC Augsburg | 78c | 544.81$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.76 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed FC Augsburg | 77c | 503.27$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.71 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed FC Augsburg | 27c | 373.48$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.64 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked FC Augsburg | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Borussia Mönchengladbach | 25c | 298.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Borussia Mönchengladbach | 35c | 274.88$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed FC Augsburg | 27c | 258.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 48c | 231.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 73c | 181.67$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 72c | 172$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7c | 149.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Borussia Mönchengladbach | 18c | 101.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed FC Augsburg | 79c | 100.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed FC Augsburg | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked FC Augsburg | 79c | 53.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 27c | 47.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d44…9f3bbacked Borussia Mönchengladbach | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Borussia Mönchengladbach | 76c | 24.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)this page
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.