Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf6955ab43785052d7a7eb91b4cfd310ca135b46c398b49f1f1238f210075ca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21e8…b85ebacked Over | 68c | 4,389$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 2,016$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.46 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 31c | 1,551$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.4 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 1,105$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.61 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Over | 56c | 1,098$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.13 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 30c | 1,091$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.22 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 67c | 880$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.85 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…fc98backed Under | 36c | 850$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 34c | 783.89$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.44 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 38c | 579.6$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.38 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 533.4$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 26c | 511.61$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.98 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 40c | 453.88$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.16 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 411.56$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 5c | 393.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 77c | 326.69$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 23c | 325.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 71c | 294.82$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 6c | 294.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…1050backed Under | 31c | 289.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 31c | 271.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…7a07backed Over | 80c | 270.77$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Over | 63c | 247.39$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Under | 28c | 242.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…1b63backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 79c | 107.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 39c | 105.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 75c | 100.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Under | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 31c | 79.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 40c | 77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 73c | 68.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 78cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 72c | 55.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 32c | 53.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Under | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Over | 68c | 49.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Under | 41c | 38.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…c51bbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ab5fbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 45c | 30.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 76c | 30.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 33c | 30.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 71c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a24…f55dbacked Over | 68c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 62c | 19.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 67c | 18.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.