NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Senators
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2276f3ca1dfc0fa04daa10322668f611f9671f7aecf07287d57db47c70e08080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senatorsof Maple Leafs, Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed Senators | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Senators | 48c | 1,550$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 1,350$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Senators | 49c | 1,322$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.81 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Maple Leafs | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 1%1 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 996.48$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 237 | 61.6%146 W · 91 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Maple Leafs | 46c | 849.98$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.6 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 793.75$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.09 | 323 | 31.3%101 W · 222 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 782$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.18 | 298 | 47%140 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Senators | 49c | 516.84$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.59 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Senators | 48c | 510.43$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.42 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Maple Leafs | 51c | 454.81$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.8 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Senators | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Maple Leafs | 52c | 265.95$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Senators | 47c | 263.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.39 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Senators | 44c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Senators | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…4249backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 181.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Senators | 45c | 152.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…cb14backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 138.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…c0cdbacked Maple Leafs | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Senators | 47c | 117.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…0c5cbacked Senators | 33c | 105.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3305…f25fbacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…f241backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 102.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Maple Leafs | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 101 | 24.8%25 W · 76 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Senators | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…e364backed Senators | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0e…c4f7backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 99.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…71a3backed Maple Leafs | 51c | 97.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…c09dbacked Senators | 50c | 97.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af6…7399backed Senators | 50c | 95.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…0828backed Maple Leafs | 51c | 94.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Senators | 49c | 84.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Senators | 45c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Senators | 50c | 68.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Senators | 50c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…b387backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Maple Leafs | 51c | 55.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…52febacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Maple Leafs | 49c | 46.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Senators | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…198cbacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…b084backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…79b7backed Senators | 48c | 29.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 459 | 54.2%249 W · 210 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Senators | 50c | 26.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 249 | 49.8%124 W · 125 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Senators | 49c | 26.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 493 | 51.3%253 W · 240 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…5720backed Senators | 48c | 23.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…22f6backed Maple Leafs | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…f3fbbacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.