NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2278487946ad96f3a036b281b904a813c029a3921605b9f3ad0a297c2a98e15d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Under | 14c | 917.33$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.43 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 20c | 752.94$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 23c | 377$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.07 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 14c | 317.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -13.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 184.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.05 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 8c | 174.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 52c | 144.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 76c | 131.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 75c | 103.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 67c | 100.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 37c | 86.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 18c | 78.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 60c | 77.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde2…743dbacked Over | 29c | 44.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Over | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 73c | 21.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…33efbacked Over | 65c | 21.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 75c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 76c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5this page
- Sabres vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Sabres vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.