NHL · resolved market

Sabres vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x610ecdf1431b35c5d4c36caf58c39ac1048f92d4678107a2d40dbe2dcb5ec046

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $36,590
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,590 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Under	53c	14,627$7,685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,684.73	1,345	54.8%737 W · 608 L	+21.0wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	47c	12,073$5,648 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,425.55	2,894	51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L	+58.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	47c	6,850$3,191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,658.49	2,664	51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L	+58.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under	54c	3,707$1,985 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,985.07	334	50.9%170 W · 164 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	54c	3,323$1,778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,777.83	377	54.4%205 W · 172 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under	54c	2,051$1,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,107.54	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Over	48c	2,000$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040	267	50.2%134 W · 133 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	48c	2,000$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040	1,441	49.2%709 W · 732 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae7b…aec1backed Under	54c	1,667$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900.3	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	47c	1,444$678 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$765.09	1,555	51.4%800 W · 755 L	+12.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over	47c	1,177$553 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$623.87	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under	53c	1,111$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.1	367	48%176 W · 191 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over	47c	1,043$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$552.79	831	49.5%411 W · 420 L	-9.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	47c	878$410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$468.34	3,704	50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L	+105.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Under	53c	812.87$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.82	146	50%73 W · 73 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Under	53c	566.04$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	295	51.9%153 W · 142 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over	48c	520.05$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.42	133	36.1%48 W · 85 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Over	47c	408.5$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.51	170	42.4%72 W · 98 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under	53c	391.02$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.24	188	53.2%100 W · 88 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Under	54c	370.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	138	55.1%76 W · 62 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	48c	300$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156	769	50.3%387 W · 382 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Under	53c	214.47$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.74	132	52.3%69 W · 63 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over	49c	204.95$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.52	624	47.3%295 W · 329 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over	47c	203.74$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.74	71	49.3%35 W · 36 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Over	47c	202$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.06	339	41.3%140 W · 199 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Under	53c	197.32$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.27	109	41.3%45 W · 64 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	134	49.3%66 W · 68 L	-4.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	100	58%58 W · 42 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Over	66c	185$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.9	1,431	58.3%834 W · 597 L	+81.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x59ce…6f07backed Over	47c	179.99$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.4	153	49%75 W · 78 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over	48c	163$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.35	276	59.4%164 W · 112 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Under	51c	154$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.54	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	+6.6wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Under	54c	134.77$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.55	108	65.7%71 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	66cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Over	47c	106.37$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	156	51.9%81 W · 75 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x198c…6a94backed Under	52c	105.77$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over	47c	99.99$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	598	52.3%313 W · 285 L	+34.1wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Over	48c	94.3$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.04	456	51.5%235 W · 221 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over	47c	94.08$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.86	823	53.1%437 W · 386 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28ad…9805backed Over	48c	80$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.6	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over	47c	78.96$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.85	145	51%74 W · 71 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under	53c	77.35$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	403	56.3%227 W · 176 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under	52c	71.05$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.95	154	44.8%69 W · 85 L	-11.0wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-15%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf498…3d66backed Under	51c	67.15$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	321	55.5%178 W · 143 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad51…d76dbacked Under	54c	65$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	107	55.1%59 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Under	52c	63.83$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.19	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed Under	54c	62.96$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	331	54.1%179 W · 152 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Over	46c	56.91$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.73	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…453dbacked Under	53c	56.58$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	203	64.5%131 W · 72 L	+13.7wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d72…5f50backed Under	53c	56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.84	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Under	53c	52.98$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.08	363	49%178 W · 185 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf10…691bbacked Under	49c	52.57$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	247	49%121 W · 126 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf749…bcd4backed Under	53c	46.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.74	99	62.6%62 W · 37 L	+5.5wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf787…7b27backed Under	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Under	51c	44.9$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	167	46.1%77 W · 90 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd11a…09eebacked Under	50c	44.16$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	243	52.3%127 W · 116 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	212	53.3%113 W · 99 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x821f…242bbacked Under	53c	37.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over	48c	32.49$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.98	385	51.4%198 W · 187 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf5…815bbacked Under	53c	31.97$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	290	52.4%152 W · 138 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Over	46c	31.53$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.03	132	53%70 W · 62 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	47c	31$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.43	860	49.2%423 W · 437 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Under	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	117	52.1%61 W · 56 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbeef…5667backed Under	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	290	53.4%155 W · 135 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fcf…7d57backed Under	53c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44bc…ee09backed Under	53c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c62…7d3bbacked Under	53c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98b8…6165backed Under	53c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de2…e551backed Under	53c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfee8…2df2backed Over	47c	24.91$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over	77c	24.61$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.7	182	62.1%113 W · 69 L	+15.6wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc45d…de2fbacked Over	49c	24.49$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.49	195	48.2%94 W · 101 L	-9.1wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b48…130abacked Over	47c	24.34$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x596f…af51backed Over	47c	24.28$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.87	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x337d…596dbacked Under	53c	24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce98…612bbacked Over	47c	23.32$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.36	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb521…6cf9backed Over	47c	23.16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x394e…5050backed Under	53c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc37…d6d5backed Under	53c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a7e…086fbacked Under	53c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa46c…f1f6backed Under	53c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a43…2188backed Over	47c	22.72$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.04	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Over	47c	22.64$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	145	53.1%77 W · 68 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x897b…ffcfbacked Over	47c	22.56$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.96	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03d6…381fbacked Over	47c	22.38$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.86	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c5a…d48abacked Over	48c	21.05$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.01	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f1…6c67backed Under	53c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Under	52c	20.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	134	45.5%61 W · 73 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44fd…c027backed Under	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2b…3c1ebacked Under	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9c0…6b0fbacked Under	53c	19.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbba3…09cabacked Under	53c	19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3097backed Under	53c	19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c1…ac4dbacked Under	53c	19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Sabres vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
Sabres vs. CapitalsCapitals won
Sabres vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
Sabres vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won
Sabres vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Over won
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Capitals won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Sabres vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event