World Politics · resolved market
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% and 6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x228f820458dcae3e63a537daf64149a689a5bb939f9a3e276043656ba9f70705
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f8…446cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,222$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,481$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcf…b6e0backed Yes | 15c | 858.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…3c53backed Yes | 5c | 492.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +514.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0872…4a83backed Yes | 4c | 335.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc0…9472backed Yes | 5c | 249.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +271.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8035…0f4bbacked Yes | 6c | 186.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…e5e4backed Yes | 30c | 59.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 78c | 13.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% and 6%?this page
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more?No won
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% and 9%?No won
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 6% or more?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?Yes won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.