World Politics · resolved market
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% and 6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b3ca430b9e66d047c9a781ce94f2b5ca659e5d793549ecd88f9086c5037d20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab1c…aaddbacked Yes | 47c | 5,023$2,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,546$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.19 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…c181backed Yes | 0c | 3,989$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 3,274$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.2 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 40c | 2,700$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.97 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 1,603$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.94 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…a7f8backed Yes | 5c | 1,553$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +316.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 1,404$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.69 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ba…0598backed Yes | 2c | 1,032$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 933.97$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.35 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 66c | 684.95$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.48 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 58c | 416.4$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.12 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 410$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed Yes | 20c | 401.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 48c | 389.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.52 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 350$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…9a10backed Yes | 34c | 348.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 31c | 343.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.02 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +15.2wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…80f4backed Yes | 59c | 329.47$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ca…219bbacked Yes | 28c | 327.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Yes | 18c | 325$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 320$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 27c | 303$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…2738backed Yes | 43c | 288.73$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 270.95$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 43c | 254.04$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.39 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…929fbacked Yes | 51c | 252.13$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Yes | 11c | 242.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +292.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…9ee2backed No | 51c | 224.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 62c | 200.22$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 50c | 178$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 162$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Yes | 39c | 161$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed Yes | 7c | 159.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 155.36$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…5653backed Yes | 39c | 145.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked No | 72c | 121.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6627…000cbacked No | 49c | 118.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 51c | 118.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 118$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323c…64ccbacked Yes | 44c | 108.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 50c | 107.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…3c53backed Yes | 26c | 87.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +514.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…2234backed Yes | 57c | 87.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes | 21c | 80.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +382.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16a1…f1d6backed Yes | 29c | 73.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 73.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 26c | 66.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…3596backed Yes | 60c | 65.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb068…ee40backed No | 64c | 61.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafdf…de21backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 22cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…da40backed Yes | 53c | 56.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…8ac7backed Yes | 25c | 51.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 80c | 50.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 77cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc68a…2d1abacked Yes | 54c | 47.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked Yes | 40c | 46.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 45.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked Yes | 43c | 43.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 42.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…d60dbacked Yes | 37c | 40.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x871c…a84fbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…6358backed Yes | 60c | 33.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 31.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…5f09backed Yes | 53c | 19.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 78c | 13.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% and 6%?this page
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more?No won
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% and 9%?No won
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 6% or more?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?Yes won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.