World Politics · resolved market
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0695cae2bdfce005d00877479f48fd4146fe3804e802744048fa85eb4ec29e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 0c | 5,136$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9b…399cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,068$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Yes | 38c | 2,046$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -58%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 5c | 1,992$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391b…3179backed Yes | 8c | 1,037$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 67c | 804$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.98 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +8.3wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 29c | 761.05$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.07 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 635.05$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 29c | 485.46$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.33 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 8c | 407.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 4c | 383.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415b…25e8backed Yes | 12c | 331.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…3596backed Yes | 12c | 294.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked No | 72c | 270.11$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 6c | 239.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 55c | 236.8$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 55c | 205.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed No | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 54c | 142.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…93c4backed Yes | 30c | 112.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…da40backed Yes | 21c | 105.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 70c | 104.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aef…9c6cbacked Yes | 19c | 94.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…3c53backed Yes | 19c | 85.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +514.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more?this page
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% and 9%?No won
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 6% or more?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?Yes won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.