World Politics · resolved market
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17231937252b8a83bccc55860163a602420205f0a57c9e3903b38e07837eb197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 2,171$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.8 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 8c | 1,792$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.82 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 22c | 1,399$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 13c | 1,302$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.1 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 8c | 1,222$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…39f2backed Yes | 26c | 1,212$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +322.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 22c | 1,103$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 966.3$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.2 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 751.13$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.84 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…e7c8backed Yes | 6c | 745.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.56per pick | 19cpaid | +1,083.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 61c | 740.72$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.61 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 9c | 726.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +240.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb044…d05abacked Yes | 17c | 613.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…3c53backed Yes | 5c | 613.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +514.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes | 7c | 547.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +382.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a8…6c09backed Yes | 15c | 541.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.91 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +1,619.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 539$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.96 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 529.99$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.39 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…12b6backed Yes | 14c | 470.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 25cpaid | +125%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x516a…a2edbacked Yes | 17c | 432.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 22cpaid | +239.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 15c | 397.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 392.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 349$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.96 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 5c | 326.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 317.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.85 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…1f8ebacked Yes | 16c | 316.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.5 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 22c | 308.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 73c | 301.99$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…c181backed Yes | 44c | 294.64$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…bfbcbacked Yes | 56c | 278.17$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 266.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.69 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 254$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Yes | 72c | 155.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -58%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 25c | 150.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 18c | 140.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.36 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 20c | 136.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5d…e145backed Yes | 15c | 134.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 134.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 8c | 134.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 127.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 61c | 116.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 19c | 116$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…b280backed Yes | 17c | 111.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +129%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…56a1backed Yes | 15c | 107.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe402…1986backed Yes | 19c | 102.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +422.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…93c4backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…0b5abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 60c | 99.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 49c | 96.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 76c | 88.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8035…0f4bbacked Yes | 20c | 81.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9645…641cbacked Yes | 17c | 77.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +427.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 74.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 22c | 72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 70.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 52c | 68.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 65.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 26c | 45.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…2738backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 57c | 35.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 52c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 22.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?this page
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more?No won
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% and 9%?No won
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 6% or more?No won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.