Serie A · resolved market
Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2295b2f7aa402a0c83e23c5afbf6c62e03ee26666d86a11cc111dcf246aad732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 18c | 3,620$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.6 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked Over | 16c | 3,100$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 27c | 1,623$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.26 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Over | 12c | 1,516$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.89 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 848.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 545.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 73c | 440$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 13c | 210.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 73c | 153$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 9c | 125.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 14c | 91.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 24c | 65.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…bdf8backed Under | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3284…45adbacked Under | 73c | 54.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Under | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5this page
- Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Hellas Verona FC won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Hellas Verona FC won
- Spread: Hellas Verona FC (-1.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.