Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10428a04e0b3aaa99f12c69ce5d789836085eb3cccf7d8982c1e9fcdf5aa842c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hellas Verona FCof AC Milan, Hellas Verona FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hellas Verona FC | 69c | 1,856$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.51 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Hellas Verona FC | 63c | 1,552$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.26 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed AC Milan | 30c | 1,132$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.09 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed AC Milan | 37c | 1,046$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed AC Milan | 37c | 1,040$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.88 | 127 | 31.5%40 W · 87 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…f034backed AC Milan | 38c | 539.17$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Hellas Verona FC | 63c | 465.62$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.28 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Hellas Verona FC | 63c | 439.96$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.79 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…a8b1backed AC Milan | 24c | 410.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed AC Milan | 31c | 400$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Hellas Verona FC | 62c | 399.99$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed AC Milan | 29c | 363.15$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed AC Milan | 34c | 314.23$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked AC Milan | 37c | 290.12$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.34 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Hellas Verona FC | 63c | 284.71$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Hellas Verona FC | 71c | 275.93$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 141 | 59.6%84 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Hellas Verona FC | 63c | 257.52$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed AC Milan | 63c | 240.54$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.54 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hellas Verona FC | 62c | 237.5$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Hellas Verona FC | 37c | 236.61$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.07 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Hellas Verona FC | 60c | 163.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked AC Milan | 36c | 152.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…7ebebacked AC Milan | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…dc65backed AC Milan | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed AC Milan | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed AC Milan | 37c | 127.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed AC Milan | 24c | 119.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…c7d5backed AC Milan | 38c | 113.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked AC Milan | 41c | 87.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Hellas Verona FC | 63c | 86.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed AC Milan | 39c | 86.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked AC Milan | 30c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked AC Milan | 37c | 78.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…727ebacked AC Milan | 38c | 64.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed AC Milan | 28c | 63.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked AC Milan | 34c | 58.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed AC Milan | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Hellas Verona FC | 41c | 38.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hellas Verona FC | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Hellas Verona FC | 65c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Hellas Verona FC | 65c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Hellas Verona FC | 64c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Hellas Verona FC | 64c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)this page
- Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Hellas Verona FC won
- Spread: Hellas Verona FC (-1.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.