Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22fb12fe18e08ca0d3d2b9bcbc0f5dfc886c692daaf671f70b7eb29f87841c7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 4,439$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.26 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Under | 1c | 2,675$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +260.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…7d32backed Over | 69c | 1,820$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 17c | 1,297$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.56 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 74c | 877.43$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.18 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 73c | 810$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.7 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 31c | 306.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 261.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Under | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 70c | 171.49$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 17c | 119.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 76c | 76.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 16c | 74.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 80c | 65.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked Over | 74c | 64.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 29c | 58.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 73c | 41.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda8c…47eabacked Over | 80c | 33.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…c074backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566f…8f86backed Over | 72c | 25.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Over | 69c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5this page
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Under won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.