Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3eb86be311d6a2436e9df2364d8676bcdacfdca4b5212f390ab982df9ff35a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 5,889$3,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.99 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 74c | 3,999$2,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.76 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 39c | 2,502$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.59 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…8da2backed Over | 27c | 2,188$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 62c | 2,145$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.25 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 26c | 1,923$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 1,272$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.04 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 24c | 1,039$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 916.8$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.04 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 61c | 909.77$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.4 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 39c | 800$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 55c | 733.34$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.34 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 40c | 471.83$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.73 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 60c | 398.06$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.21 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Under | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 71c | 247$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…02d8backed Over | 41c | 246.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 49c | 197$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 30c | 183.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 177.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 25c | 150.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Over | 40c | 124.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 55c | 119.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 53c | 113$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 64c | 100.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 60c | 99.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 62c | 98.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 40c | 91.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…ab4abacked Under | 60c | 77.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Under | 77c | 76.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 47c | 74.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 46c | 65.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 36c | 65.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 62c | 55.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 38c | 55.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Under | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 28c | 40.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…5526backed Over | 41c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…ce65backed Under | 63c | 33.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Under | 74c | 32.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Over | 34c | 30.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…5857backed Over | 55c | 29.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 61c | 24.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5this page
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.