Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22fe6dda94a80486c8821d76e2fe59a5c8f414c2b8d251ee3fe24a725922cd28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Yes | 24c | 4,775$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 2,697$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.84 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…bcebbacked No | 73c | 1,926$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 72c | 1,904$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.11 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 1,618$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.99 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 1,466$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.49 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 73c | 1,027$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.29 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,015$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.83 | 460 | 44.3%204 W · 256 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 74c | 809.23$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.4 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 27c | 567$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9661…36f6backed Yes | 25c | 545$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.41 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…d45abacked Yes | 28c | 512.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 27c | 405.59$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 734 | 40.1%294 W · 440 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 74c | 213.21$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 27c | 179$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 211 | 51.7%109 W · 102 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…2968backed Yes | 31c | 160.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed No | 73c | 93.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 68c | 91.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 28c | 73.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 305 | 50.8%155 W · 150 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 70c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 205 | 50.7%104 W · 101 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 73c | 68.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 28c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…eccfbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…5478backed No | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked No | 74c | 52.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 398 | 52.5%209 W · 189 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 28c | 49.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 339 | 59%200 W · 139 L | +18.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Yes | 28c | 45.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7a…c69fbacked No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 73c | 34.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 74c | 28.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 370 | 49.5%183 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 25.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?this page
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-08-07?Yes won
- Will SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win on 2026-08-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.