MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23251263c9fbc652968dca66a0e14628386e3b90120762a9dcfe8046f7f6881f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 55c | 9,730$5,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,378.55 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 52c | 6,226$3,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,237.57 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 5,472$2,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,465.75 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 4,253$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.75 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 4,003$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.6 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Over | 50c | 2,310$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.13 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 633.63$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.82 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 51c | 570.94$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.18 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 50c | 528.1$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.05 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 49c | 457.38$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.26 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Under | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 49c | 297$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 274.47$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 49c | 245.88$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…64a7backed Under | 49c | 196.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 56c | 191.03$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9510backed Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 46c | 149$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 52c | 141.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 79.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 42c | 67.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…3d00backed Over | 80c | 65.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 51c | 55.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 50c | 39.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 290 | 43.1%125 W · 165 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 57c | 38.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 50c | 38.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 51c | 23.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati RedsLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-6.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-7.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.