NFL · resolved market
Spread: PIT (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2328078e1e407a310a13723b532b5de3c68ca4557364f06bd93d1a88760df639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PITof PIT, NE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked PIT | 50c | 21,637$10,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,718.32 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked NE | 49c | 11,549$5,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,673.25 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed NE | 50c | 10,370$5,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,185.19 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked NE | 52c | 929.18$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.17 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked PIT | 48c | 649.92$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.96 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked PIT | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked NE | 50c | 432.64$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.32 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked PIT | 47c | 406.9$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.66 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed NE | 53c | 406.9$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.66 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked PIT | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed PIT | 48c | 380.65$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.67 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed NE | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f1…9434backed NE | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed PIT | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked PIT | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked NE | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed PIT | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…ad4bbacked NE | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed PIT | 53c | 73.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked NE | 52c | 57.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed NE | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked NE | 47c | 38.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed NE | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed NE | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed NE | 48c | 34.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked NE | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…36dcbacked NE | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked PIT | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…b865backed PIT | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: PIT (-1.5)this page
- PIT vs. NE: O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: PIT (-2.5)PIT won
- Spread: PIT (-3.5)PIT won
- Steelers vs. PatriotsSteelers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.