Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2328ff907fe1d1d9d1db7dec138828b80f03266028ffbb32f04de878b527d62f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c00…a074backed No | 67c | 94,526$63,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,332.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb403…06f0backed Yes | 33c | 94,526$31,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,332.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 34c | 619.72$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.08 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked No | 72c | 513.38$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 44c | 387.92$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.22 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe921…f7e9backed Yes | 45c | 380$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 360.45$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.43 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 29c | 332.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.57 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 42c | 319.64$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.06 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 26c | 316.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 52c | 284.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.18 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 70c | 275$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…50b7backed No | 68c | 221.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b41…3606backed No | 55c | 210$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked Yes | 60c | 208.78$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 69c | 189.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked No | 69c | 189.11$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 62c | 174.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 55c | 172.49$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…ebf2backed No | 55c | 170$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 71c | 165.37$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 126.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 40c | 117.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 74c | 95.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 69.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 24c | 62.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed Yes | 78c | 37.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…1cf7backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e3…626dbacked No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…8201backed Yes | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 55c | 29.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…f427backed Yes | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…dc80backed Yes | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…d2f9backed Yes | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe669…544abacked Yes | 62c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…d038backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.