NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Flames: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23305e5c41309a9bbaeeb4ca5b2c04c58ea4da779b6a346b130270215f5ba094
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Under | 58c | 2,670$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.4 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 42c | 2,004$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.86 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 60c | 1,203$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.37 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 40c | 906.8$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.72 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 42c | 500$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 42c | 293.02$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.07 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 44c | 123$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Under | 60c | 92.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Over | 41c | 91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 79.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 38c | 64.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 40c | 25.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 68c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Flames: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. FlamesPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Penguins won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.