NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Flames: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6f2b379e580d772bb01a91be178bf254425b14fdb0d538320aaf279ad0ebccb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Under | 46c | 60,876$28,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,611.86 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 54c | 20,000$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,800 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 53c | 17,500$9,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,275 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 5,320$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,819.96 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 5,008$2,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,704.63 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 54c | 2,778$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Under | 47c | 2,670$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.1 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 53c | 2,483$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.94 | 329 | 46.8%154 W · 175 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 7c | 1,598$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.14 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +7.1wins | +0.27per pick | 11cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 54c | 1,590$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.6 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 53c | 1,500$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 54c | 950.42$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.46 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 26c | 846.15$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.15 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Under | 26c | 739.84$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.48 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 47c | 639$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.67 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 46c | 444$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 53c | 407.22$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.83 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Over | 54c | 375.93$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 53c | 352.62$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.89 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 54c | 341.48$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 41c | 278.84$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.33 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 140.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 53c | 92.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Under | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 54c | 74.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 36c | 73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 18c | 60.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 44c | 46.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…b227backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 54c | 37.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 37.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 54c | 35.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 51c | 34.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Under | 46c | 30.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…6960backed Under | 57c | 28.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 54c | 28.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 27.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 38c | 26.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 46c | 24.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Under | 62c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Flames: O/U 5.5this page
- Penguins vs. FlamesPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Penguins won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.