NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f7b0b0ef1b6ca19e9a073f54d9022a09c4b9ac22fa3f10466de8e5b2e9622c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Penguins, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Penguins | 32c | 6,767$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,601.73 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…db3cbacked Flames | 69c | 5,803$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Penguins | 30c | 3,808$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.66 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flames | 68c | 2,530$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.95 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Flames | 69c | 1,065$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.85 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Flames | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Penguins | 31c | 980$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.2 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 53c | 402.55$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.35 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Flames | 69c | 363$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.47 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Flames | 69c | 347.83$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Flames | 68c | 300.35$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.23 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Penguins | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Penguins | 47c | 240$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Penguins | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Flames | 68c | 105$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Flames | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Flames | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Penguins | 31c | 85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Flames | 70c | 84.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Penguins | 32c | 77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flames | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Flames | 68c | 68.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Penguins | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Flames | 70c | 57.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Penguins | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Flames | 68c | 38.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Flames | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951b…291abacked Penguins | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flames | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Flames | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Flames | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Flames | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Flames | 68c | 19.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flames | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. FlamesPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Penguins vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.