Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2330c25557e8cf1290830c10512355ff35ef75183235b0c48c78543a370ea252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 12c | 496.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 371.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 74c | 261.53$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes | 26c | 200.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.43 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 62c | 170.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 140$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 109.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 26c | 92.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 90.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 86.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 76.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 76.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 28c | 71.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 62.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed Yes | 39c | 62.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 55.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 66c | 51.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 51.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 42c | 48.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 42.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 39.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 39.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 59c | 38.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 32.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 72c | 31.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 29.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 26.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 43c | 23.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 74c | 19.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 74c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 16.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 14.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 75c | 14.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 73c | 13.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or below on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.