NFL · resolved market
Dolphins vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2348aeb0977f762ef0043c8a60bf98399e0a9bd8f4dd301e43cf634b3335c3bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 42c | 10,092$4,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,227.96 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 58c | 8,914$5,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,733.06 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Under | 51c | 6,159$3,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,992.42 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 71c | 2,733$1,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.07 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 1,817$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.48 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 1c | 1,166$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.41 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 50c | 1,008$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.48 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 51c | 654.26$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.04 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 52c | 500$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.5 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 51c | 460.06$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.43 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 372.19$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.65 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 275.56$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…4fcebacked Under | 58c | 177.45$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb6…cac2backed Over | 51c | 109.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…d7d5backed Under | 51c | 109.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…8af8backed Under | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 48c | 54.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Under | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dolphins vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5this page
- Dolphins vs. FalconsDolphins won
- Dolphins vs. Falcons: O/U 45.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Falcons: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Falcons (-5.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Falcons (-6.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Falcons (-7.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.