NFL · resolved market
Spread: Falcons (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7300ec48af27841d8c36fa63d66aa144a569a2737c84ea3e5f055d26a728caf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphinsof Falcons, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Falcons | 53c | 25,000$13,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,250 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Dolphins | 47c | 14,554$6,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,713.81 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Dolphins | 47c | 10,423$4,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,524.19 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Falcons | 52c | 9,158$4,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,762.31 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Dolphins | 48c | 6,764$3,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,517.28 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Dolphins | 46c | 5,951$2,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,210.68 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Falcons | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…efcdbacked Falcons | 53c | 4,426$2,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,345.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dolphins | 47c | 2,933$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.75 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dolphins | 48c | 2,204$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.24 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Dolphins | 47c | 2,009$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.23 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dolphins | 45c | 1,481$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.28 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Dolphins | 47c | 1,169$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.26 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Falcons | 56c | 990.33$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.58 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Falcons | 57c | 954$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.24 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Dolphins | 48c | 952.18$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.13 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3818…c72dbacked Falcons | 56c | 799.46$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…c2eabacked Falcons | 55c | 639.73$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…08fbbacked Falcons | 55c | 638.18$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Dolphins | 45c | 586.21$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Falcons | 53c | 425$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.25 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Falcons | 53c | 424.53$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1904backed Falcons | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Dolphins | 47c | 343$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.46 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…d46bbacked Falcons | 54c | 342.46$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Falcons | 55c | 308.25$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.46 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Dolphins | 47c | 224.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Dolphins | 43c | 190$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Falcons | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Falcons | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Dolphins | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Falcons | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Falcons | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Dolphins | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Dolphins | 46c | 89.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Falcons | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…84b3backed Dolphins | 47c | 54.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…95b7backed Falcons | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Dolphins | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Falcons | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Falcons | 51c | 37.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Falcons (-6.5)this page
- Dolphins vs. FalconsDolphins won
- Dolphins vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Falcons: O/U 45.5Under won
- Dolphins vs. Falcons: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Falcons (-5.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Falcons (-7.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.