Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x234f025e377a7bd65421693993333dce4b53855eeea5f2cfce5d268af41dc954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,899$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.35 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…ad54backed Yes | 7c | 713.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 13c | 556.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 13c | 489.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 14c | 452.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 441.26$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 11c | 390.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 278.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 267.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 9c | 237.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 222.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 9c | 206.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 11c | 191.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 169.77$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 31c | 151.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 9c | 141.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 136.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 136.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 9c | 134.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 9c | 134.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 10c | 131.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 22c | 106.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…d002backed Yes | 20c | 93.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…bd5dbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 25c | 88.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 14c | 85.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 48c | 79.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 70.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed Yes | 16c | 69.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 30c | 61.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 47c | 45.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…7a4ebacked No | 78c | 44.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 54c | 39.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 34c | 37.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 30c | 33.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 48c | 29.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 47c | 28.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…3a02backed Yes | 52c | 21.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 19.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 53c | 19.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.