Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57a0b1239ea01acdd592d0aad814aece477b408f18065a19fd96368f2ac3e99f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 716.33$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 375$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 69c | 326.27$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.85 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed No | 9c | 301.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.14 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 266.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 10c | 221.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 45c | 176.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 33c | 137.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 48c | 133.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 127.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 43c | 115.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 36c | 111.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…fd4ebacked Yes | 46c | 102.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 59c | 102.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…4957backed Yes | 45c | 99.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 65c | 98.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 40c | 96.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 80.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 53c | 79.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 68.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 65c | 66.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…d002backed Yes | 45c | 66.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 44c | 66.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 35c | 65.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 48c | 63.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 32c | 59.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 64c | 56.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 55.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 57c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 44c | 49.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 49.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 37c | 47.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 46.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…d3aabacked No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 36c | 38.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 62c | 38.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 35.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 44c | 32.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 32c | 31.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 50c | 30.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 77c | 30.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 44c | 29.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 41c | 28.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 76c | 28.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 27.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 52c | 27.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 44c | 26.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 25.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…2e6abacked No | 54c | 25.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 24.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 71c | 19.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…3a02backed Yes | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 17.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.