Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9358eb6f35d766b39d9a425ea4e8a7474b58c392a518665e6631885121dfbe94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked No | 2c | 3,640$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 1c | 1,996$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 1,130$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…5995backed No | 2c | 884.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 624.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.48 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 517.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.31 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 4c | 463.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.15 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 22c | 453.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 365.77$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 333.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 9c | 325.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.86 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 51c | 304.74$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.84 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 75c | 258.83$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 5c | 238.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.17 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 51c | 186.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 37c | 181.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.67 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 170$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 165.03$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 9c | 144.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 78c | 125.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…eb26backed Yes | 38c | 122.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 44c | 121.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 37c | 113.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 42c | 110.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 31c | 104.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 101.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…4957backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 58c | 98.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 86.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 17c | 85.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 81.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 80.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 33c | 74.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 54c | 73.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 36c | 62.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 61.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 40c | 60.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 24c | 54.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…9744backed Yes | 44c | 51.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…2f32backed No | 22c | 49.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 49.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 48.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5d…1726backed Yes | 46c | 47.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 33c | 46.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 70c | 39.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 34c | 38.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 39c | 36.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 32c | 36.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 32.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 43c | 32.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…a996backed Yes | 44c | 32.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 44c | 31.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…81e9backed No | 78c | 28.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 26.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 58c | 25.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…d002backed No | 61c | 24.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 64c | 20.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 76c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 60c | 19.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 18.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.