Tennis · resolved market
Tomas Machac vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2352ef1c1ac92e0fb3259db9471f653e81030a1850e1d8aee0568fa5209d2605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Under 2.5 | 78c | 2,737$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.39 | 454 | 57.9%263 W · 191 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over 2.5 | 13c | 1,413$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.46 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 1,068$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.51 | 207 | 48.3%100 W · 107 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 2.5 | 19c | 1,024$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.66 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Over 2.5 | 68c | 1,004$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.99 | 312 | 34.6%108 W · 204 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over 2.5 | 11c | 950.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Under 2.5 | 61c | 797.94$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.36 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Under 2.5 | 36c | 535.45$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.31 | 387 | 39.3%152 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…2dedbacked Over 2.5 | 18c | 523.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.03 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Under 2.5 | 59c | 330.94$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.07 | 434 | 49.1%213 W · 221 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under 2.5 | 37c | 260.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over 2.5 | 40c | 238.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over 2.5 | 13c | 219.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.89 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…6b6ebacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under 2.5 | 34c | 148$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Under 2.5 | 29c | 125$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Under 2.5 | 30c | 109.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Under 2.5 | 49c | 103.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over 2.5 | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Under 2.5 | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Over 2.5 | 16c | 89.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 84.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed Under 2.5 | 17c | 83.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Under 2.5 | 25c | 83.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 546 | 34.4%188 W · 358 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Under 2.5 | 36c | 80.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -10.4wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e12…0ae4backed Under 2.5 | 62c | 71.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 2.5 | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Under 2.5 | 32c | 53.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 2.5 | 59c | 51.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under 2.5 | 32c | 46.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…5a03backed Over 2.5 | 73c | 41.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Under 2.5 | 36c | 37.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…e058backed Under 2.5 | 79c | 16.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tomas Machac vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Machac vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Machac vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Machac vs SinnerSinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.