Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2353a1bf8ff27663ad728fc9002b7ebe4ee1e9d61d45b25ea3bac4a30b58d384
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Tundra Esports, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed Tundra Esports | 46c | 13,144$6,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,009.58 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid | 48c | 8,334$4,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,316.59 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Liquid | 52c | 8,086$4,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,851.42 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Tundra Esports | 53c | 6,090$3,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,223.19 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Tundra Esports | 63c | 3,804$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.95 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Team Liquid | 53c | 3,804$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,803.65 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Team Liquid | 45c | 3,488$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.72 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 3,214$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.21 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 2,511$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.53 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Liquid | 49c | 1,441$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.17 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Liquid | 55c | 1,195$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.62 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 986.68$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.67 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…3d8abacked Team Liquid | 39c | 700.28$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Tundra Esports | 49c | 693.51$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.72 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid | 47c | 587.97$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.5 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…556cbacked Team Liquid | 54c | 562.88$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 519.66$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.21 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Team Liquid | 49c | 500$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…1fdbbacked Team Liquid | 9c | 400$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +140.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Team Liquid | 51c | 354.53$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.11 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Team Liquid | 51c | 320$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9a…6e9ebacked Tundra Esports | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Team Liquid | 52c | 210$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Tundra Esports | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Team Liquid | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Team Liquid | 49c | 180$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Tundra Esports | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Team Liquid | 47c | 173.85$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Tundra Esports | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Team Liquid | 76c | 124.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3faa…bf0cbacked Team Liquid | 46c | 111.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 105$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Tundra Esports | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b0…de80backed Tundra Esports | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Team Liquid | 56c | 96.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Team Liquid | 43c | 92.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Tundra Esports | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Tundra Esports | 23c | 82.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -14.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 76.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…9edcbacked Team Liquid | 45c | 75.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c9…bacfbacked Team Liquid | 37c | 72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Liquid | 39c | 67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Team Liquid | 36c | 64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…5050backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed Team Liquid | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Team Liquid | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Team Liquid | 44c | 57.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…e530backed Team Liquid | 48c | 44.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Team Liquid | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee47…1c4cbacked Tundra Esports | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Team Liquid | 53c | 23.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Team Liquid | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3)Team Liquid won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.