Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x031132aed99eb924eda1a24cc6cbde2632c01498ca3ed9509700688d1f57e7ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Tundra Esports, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 4,257$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Liquid | 40c | 2,442$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.89 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.99 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 1,790$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.35 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…3d8abacked Team Liquid | 43c | 1,617$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid | 43c | 1,158$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.86 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb4…96b0backed Team Liquid | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tundra Esports | 2c | 918.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 641.99$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.15 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Team Liquid | 49c | 610$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Team Liquid | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Liquid | 56c | 597.16$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.16 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 52c | 515.69$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.65 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Team Liquid | 46c | 505.67$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.42 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid | 41c | 501.91$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.48 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Tundra Esports | 31c | 500$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Tundra Esports | 46c | 301.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…430cbacked Team Liquid | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 281.37$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.38 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…e46dbacked Team Liquid | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Team Liquid | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Team Liquid | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Liquid | 46c | 198.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.06 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Team Liquid | 63c | 180.75$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3faa…bf0cbacked Team Liquid | 62c | 180.47$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…3f60backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 175.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Liquid | 59c | 160$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 117$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Liquid | 77c | 103.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Tundra Esports | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Team Liquid | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Team Liquid | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Team Liquid | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Liquid | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…8bf2backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 46.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…f2bebacked Team Liquid | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Liquid | 79c | 41.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9a…6e9ebacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3)Team Liquid won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.