Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2360a5388a016b244ac765342a28db0dde2a708bb1b3cdda3ebbf9141b1e38f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 4c | 575.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 446.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 15c | 362.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 7c | 210.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 62c | 191.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 171.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 159.11$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 33c | 153.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 117.23$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 109.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 27c | 109$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 17c | 108.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 54c | 92.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 88.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 84.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 24c | 82.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 38c | 77.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed Yes | 63c | 70.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 69.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 62c | 61.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 32c | 53.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 74c | 49.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 37c | 42.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed Yes | 49c | 40.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…e85cbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 33c | 36.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 71c | 35.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 29c | 34.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 43c | 33.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 33.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed Yes | 35c | 32.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 37c | 27.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 22.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 76c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 78c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.