Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb95c7da8653a341de22b3571c259d4654c17ceee621d1f40486afd1dec50bd8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 13c | 589.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 494.94$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 54c | 404.84$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.32 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 335.47$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed No | 34c | 296.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 4c | 294.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 72c | 276.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.17 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 237.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 56c | 233.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 7c | 224.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 58c | 216.33$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.86 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 195.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 183.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 182.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 175.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 24c | 157$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 76c | 156.95$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 70c | 153.5$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 8c | 145.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 145.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 17c | 135.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.73 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 125.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 66c | 118.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 54c | 97.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 53c | 93.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 50c | 87.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 85.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 54c | 68.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 55c | 68.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 74c | 67.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 65.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 18c | 63.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2438backed Yes | 18c | 56.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +258.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 34c | 55.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…0087backed Yes | 39c | 43.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 47c | 35.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…e655backed No | 52c | 29.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 69c | 28.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…e651backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 26.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 56c | 20.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 76c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.