MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2362fafca4a25d52bbd13987a2de0653e48431b0aba5befef75556fe8692fe12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 2,933$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.76 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 2,273$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.87 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 2,208$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.4 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Houston Astros | 58c | 1,950$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.94 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 1,513$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.46 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 987.41$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Houston Astros | 59c | 962.13$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.51 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Houston Astros | 60c | 950.93$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.06 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 735$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 732.08$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.79 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 493.16$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.06 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Houston Astros | 61c | 491$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.49 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Houston Astros | 60c | 420.8$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.32 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 309.31$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.91 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Houston Astros | 60c | 257.6$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 199.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Houston Astros | 61c | 169.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 169.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Houston Astros | 58c | 134.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 123.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 111.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 56c | 100.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 82.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 82.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 77.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 72.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 52.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Houston Astros | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Houston Astros | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Houston Astros | 57c | 38.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Houston Astros | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Houston Astros | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Houston Astros | 58c | 33.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 59c | 33.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Houston Astros | 69c | 27.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Houston Astros | 51c | 27.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 22.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Houston Astros | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 18.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- NRFI: Boston Red Sox vs. Houston AstrosNo won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.