AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $500b on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2367538e0b729fbbf51827d046dec4b30b8cabe483e32fa31d22cd8d0c204716
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a72…9c9abacked No | 53c | 1,670$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…3f2cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,465$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ed62backed No | 53c | 1,465$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…3de4backed Yes | 47c | 1,330$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…ac08backed No | 54c | 1,289$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf412…891fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,289$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…917bbacked No | 54c | 1,279$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d63…d39ebacked No | 54c | 1,278$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…778abacked No | 54c | 1,256$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf803…649ebacked No | 56c | 1,251$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…5626backed No | 54c | 1,241$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…54ccbacked Yes | 44c | 1,237$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecf…216bbacked No | 54c | 1,231$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ae…e6c7backed No | 54c | 1,223$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b27…1414backed No | 56c | 1,223$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee8…3365backed No | 54c | 1,222$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…1ce5backed Yes | 44c | 1,216$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…23d7backed No | 54c | 1,212$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…31b0backed No | 56c | 1,202$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5951…6c98backed No | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e9…caf3backed No | 56c | 1,068$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e94…56a3backed No | 52c | 1,065$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…88cdbacked Yes | 48c | 920$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb65…b090backed Yes | 3c | 850.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e49…5eebbacked No | 55c | 725$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…2198backed Yes | 45c | 670$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa3…fdedbacked Yes | 44c | 655$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb72…115bbacked Yes | 46c | 641$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…2eb5backed Yes | 46c | 641$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…33babacked Yes | 46c | 638$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…8598backed Yes | 46c | 635$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…21b1backed Yes | 46c | 631$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…e663backed Yes | 46c | 624$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb960…bc6bbacked Yes | 46c | 622$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…ef3cbacked Yes | 46c | 621$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…d9d3backed Yes | 46c | 617$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…24cabacked Yes | 46c | 617$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…f1cfbacked Yes | 47c | 616$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83d…5080backed Yes | 46c | 612$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…7509backed Yes | 46c | 611$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…c148backed Yes | 46c | 609$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c6…3162backed Yes | 45c | 606$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x704f…9eb2backed Yes | 46c | 601$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…114fbacked Yes | 75c | 586.41$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ee…4660backed Yes | 44c | 568$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…ee70backed Yes | 44c | 566$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…48adbacked Yes | 44c | 546$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…f636backed Yes | 44c | 546$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…5705backed No | 56c | 546$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c2…2cfbbacked Yes | 47c | 545.81$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…90aabacked Yes | 44c | 534$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090b…1b8fbacked Yes | 44c | 522$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 39c | 422.17$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.39 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 53c | 131.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee1…aed2backed Yes | 49c | 101.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 62c | 83.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 39c | 51.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 72c | 50.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…cd82backed Yes | 55c | 36.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbb…505abacked Yes | 54c | 26.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 67c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $500b on October 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $450b and $460b on October 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $460b and $470b on October 31?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $490b and $500b on October 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $440b on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.