Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2398e56991e279daae8350614941194f8e353876eec9eb049726f8e967f6d97a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UNLV Runnin' Rebelsof Fresno State Bulldogs, UNLV Runnin' Rebels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 78c | 2,300$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.06 | 160 | 53.8%86 W · 74 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 22c | 1,638$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.36 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 54c | 1,129$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.94 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 51c | 783.8$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.61 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 9c | 760$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 29c | 500$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 28c | 490.54$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.16 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 12c | 412.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 66c | 303.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 23c | 263.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 195 | 54.9%107 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 24c | 232.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 47c | 171.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 65c | 163.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 72c | 146.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 18c | 137$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 67c | 136.06$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 36c | 126.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 22c | 97.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 78c | 91.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 20c | 71.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 22c | 57.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 54c | 55.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…907dbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 23c | 46.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 323 | 43%139 W · 184 L | -18.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed UNLV Runnin' Rebels | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.