MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23c58bc037b7f28bb3a8dcc2331670a5af68c4cc3c4469c6755b70ce561c0e24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 20,589$11,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,790.65 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 10,514$4,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,098.2 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 7,461$3,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,178.36 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 6,383$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,716.26 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 1,393$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 1,234$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.51 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 1,196$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.67 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…ce1fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 804.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.94 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 743.84$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 708.44$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.72 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 694.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.85 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 668$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.4 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 645.45$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.45 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 485.86$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.8 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 429$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.53 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 306.41$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 158$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 115.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 113$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…726cbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 63.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 57.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 42.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 29.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 27.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 23.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 19.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.