MLB · resolved market
Diamondbacks vs. Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23ff7aa54f1bad33bd10ad57a779deeb36247676fd2223b0eb8114c4d239c6fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diamondbacksof Diamondbacks, Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Diamondbacks | 62c | 6,662$4,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.35 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Mets | 25c | 2,536$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Diamondbacks | 49c | 2,263$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.61 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mets | 21c | 2,239$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.94 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Mets | 50c | 1,980$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.1 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Mets | 50c | 1,801$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Mets | 28c | 1,374$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.45 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks | 50c | 1,317$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.81 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 1,317$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mets | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Mets | 57c | 894$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.94 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 831$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.19 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Mets | 52c | 615.38$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Diamondbacks | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Mets | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…fd4abacked Mets | 36c | 413.38$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Mets | 38c | 351.74$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mets | 52c | 290$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Diamondbacks | 66c | 289.28$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 236.41$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.84 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Mets | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Diamondbacks | 66c | 173.34$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Mets | 50c | 165$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Mets | 49c | 157.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Diamondbacks | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Mets | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Diamondbacks | 55c | 134$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Mets | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Diamondbacks | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mets | 30c | 71.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Diamondbacks | 59c | 57.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mets | 51c | 51.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Diamondbacks | 41c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Mets | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Diamondbacks | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Diamondbacks | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Mets | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mets | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Mets | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.