Weather · resolved market
Cat 3+ hurricane hits Miami in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24179919d36af05a5b7c4bd17057a59087dde6d332cbd5d268aa92e4369d08f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 11c | 9,659$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +443.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 68c | 2,788$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b05…5aecbacked Yes | 19c | 2,696$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,205$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 18c | 923.45$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.94 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 839.47$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.09 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 28c | 800$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090f…4579backed Yes | 16c | 705.53$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 697.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 15c | 619.09$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 404$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…57f2backed Yes | 26c | 382.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xface…0572backed Yes | 18c | 334.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfef…6021backed Yes | 28c | 289$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 17c | 271.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…6dd7backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…8d8abacked Yes | 6c | 216.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f24…c7f0backed Yes | 5c | 202.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 195$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4b…ac55backed No | 76c | 159.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…ead4backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 102$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…fecbbacked Yes | 25c | 98.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 79c | 68.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…85c4backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34e…6ec7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 24.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.