CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. HEROIC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x241841fcc96476832ec44304fe02b0cf5518f346d878c9639fbb6d7884b812d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NIPof NIP, HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf557…18debacked HEROIC | 46c | 17,305$7,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,947.52 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked NIP | 54c | 15,873$8,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,340.56 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked HEROIC | 16c | 8,343$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.94 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed HEROIC | 46c | 4,379$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.66 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed HEROIC | 29c | 3,824$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.73 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed NIP | 67c | 2,246$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.85 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e3c0backed NIP | 54c | 1,875$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed HEROIC | 45c | 1,722$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.6 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked NIP | 54c | 1,500$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked NIP | 54c | 1,296$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.3 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed NIP | 57c | 1,019$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.08 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed NIP | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed HEROIC | 20c | 992.56$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed HEROIC | 39c | 882.82$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.28 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed HEROIC | 16c | 833.33$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.33 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed HEROIC | 46c | 659.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed HEROIC | 6c | 603.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed NIP | 54c | 550$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked HEROIC | 47c | 529.34$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.79 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed HEROIC | 39c | 485$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.76 | 256 | 34.4%88 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked HEROIC | 31c | 452.38$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed HEROIC | 16c | 400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked HEROIC | 43c | 366$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.38 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed HEROIC | 43c | 351.16$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed HEROIC | 10c | 271$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked NIP | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed HEROIC | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…0b8dbacked HEROIC | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed HEROIC | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed HEROIC | 46c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed NIP | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed NIP | 56c | 159.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed NIP | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked HEROIC | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed NIP | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed HEROIC | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed HEROIC | 45c | 77.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed NIP | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed HEROIC | 44c | 70.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed HEROIC | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked HEROIC | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.