Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Cheeki_Breeki vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2441342221ced80f45f3a26984db06785314dab7b87f3681415c6e7a64fdf63e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof Cheeki_Breeki, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06a8…2927backed Cheeki_Breeki | 36c | 8,166$2,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,924.15 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…c8b7backed Cheeki_Breeki | 43c | 4,552$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed Cheeki_Breeki | 2c | 4,400$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…9562backed AVULUS | 62c | 3,205$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.18 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed AVULUS | 62c | 2,933$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.31 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…acc9backed Cheeki_Breeki | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Cheeki_Breeki | 18c | 1,933$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.95 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ab…a8b6backed AVULUS | 33c | 1,797$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed AVULUS | 63c | 1,696$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.05 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb14…49b2backed Cheeki_Breeki | 39c | 1,628$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.82 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 60c | 1,593$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.18 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…0cd8backed AVULUS | 74c | 1,182$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Cheeki_Breeki | 6c | 1,100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed AVULUS | 66c | 840.97$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.89 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS | 63c | 592.63$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.17 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…f3b0backed Cheeki_Breeki | 24c | 583.29$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb071…4d2ebacked AVULUS | 61c | 530.5$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed AVULUS | 71c | 450$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed AVULUS | 72c | 450$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Cheeki_Breeki | 12c | 349.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…3432backed Cheeki_Breeki | 28c | 325.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Cheeki_Breeki | 38c | 321.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd795…6fcdbacked AVULUS | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00f…0f52backed AVULUS | 75c | 266.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Cheeki_Breeki | 6c | 244$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…2922backed AVULUS | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01a…bf29backed AVULUS | 64c | 199.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Cheeki_Breeki | 38c | 192.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked AVULUS | 63c | 188.01$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked AVULUS | 61c | 169.46$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Cheeki_Breeki | 41c | 136$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed AVULUS | 58c | 111.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Cheeki_Breeki | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked AVULUS | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked AVULUS | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked AVULUS | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked AVULUS | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed AVULUS | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Cheeki_Breeki | 37c | 98.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed AVULUS | 72c | 93.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…8b7fbacked Cheeki_Breeki | 44c | 90.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…f1eebacked Cheeki_Breeki | 31c | 82.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Cheeki_Breeki | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Cheeki_Breeki | 26c | 60.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked AVULUS | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…f506backed AVULUS | 30c | 54.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Cheeki_Breeki | 48c | 52.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS | 32c | 50.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked AVULUS | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked Cheeki_Breeki | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Cheeki_Breeki | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…4113backed AVULUS | 72c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…cf6cbacked AVULUS | 42c | 36.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7719…80b6backed AVULUS | 55c | 35.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Cheeki_Breeki | 37c | 33.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf04…3e9bbacked Cheeki_Breeki | 40c | 29.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed AVULUS | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Cheeki_Breeki vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Cheeki_Breeki vs AVULUS (BO3)AVULUS won
- Dota 2: Cheeki_Breeki vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.