TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Cheeki_Breeki vs AVULUS (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
AVULUSof Cheeki_Breeki, AVULUS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,031

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,468 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9024…a444backed Cheeki_Breeki2c5,400$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103300%0 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Cheeki_Breeki52c1,810$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.617647.4%36 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS29c1,609$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.0846535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Cheeki_Breeki53c1,270$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.363151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed AVULUS57c1,168$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.916647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cheeki_Breeki30c959.71$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.852,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Cheeki_Breeki54c882.7$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.9289440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8049…1e6cbacked Cheeki_Breeki58c859.15$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Cheeki_Breeki70c643.08$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.1635758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Cheeki_Breeki43c600$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25825547.8%122 W · 133 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2fb…1425backed Cheeki_Breeki46c549.95$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.481266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf41f…c71ebacked AVULUS79c489.34$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.941060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked AVULUS34c487.5$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.520727.5%57 W · 150 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed AVULUS58c474.9$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.4657355.5%318 W · 255 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Cheeki_Breeki49c410.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20054445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Cheeki_Breeki9c399.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa6…f3b0backed AVULUS54c383.75$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.611650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Cheeki_Breeki46c326.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15029245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcecd…d968backed AVULUS51c296.63$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked AVULUS54c292.16$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.4285851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fc…1511backed Cheeki_Breeki12c291$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.461625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed AVULUS29c283.86$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.8623529.4%69 W · 166 L-21.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Cheeki_Breeki71c280.38$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9225444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cheeki_Breeki43c279.53$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8873841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed AVULUS48c265.33$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.343351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked AVULUS44c254.18$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.346735.8%24 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b1a…16b7backed AVULUS44c245.45$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked AVULUS51c234.43$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.43785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick63cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Cheeki_Breeki45c223.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…22eabacked AVULUS30c216.94$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.212326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Cheeki_Breeki7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515131.8%48 W · 103 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Cheeki_Breeki47c209.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.691136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed AVULUS45c207.15$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.175962.7%37 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked AVULUS54c200.96$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3186949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Cheeki_Breeki54c185$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.910659.4%63 W · 43 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9195…72a4backed Cheeki_Breeki54c183.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x788d…99bbbacked AVULUS58c172.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc10f…c7dfbacked AVULUS40c161$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53be…8b7fbacked Cheeki_Breeki56c159.08$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Cheeki_Breeki47c154.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.31,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe065…d1debacked AVULUS42c151.96$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.88825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Cheeki_Breeki50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76d1…73d5backed Cheeki_Breeki34c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.26922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed AVULUS48c142.07$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8817146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d8…2922backed Cheeki_Breeki44c137.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.281258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked AVULUS46c129$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1614121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Cheeki_Breeki50c121.44$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9966662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc1c1…a2d1backed AVULUS57c118.21$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked AVULUS50c110$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5516155.3%89 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a32…0807backed AVULUS51c109.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97dc…6babbacked AVULUS49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Cheeki_Breeki11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4479343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Cheeki_Breeki45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4553757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked AVULUS41c99.97$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9829047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4499…d102backed Cheeki_Breeki61c98.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a10…cf6cbacked AVULUS30c98.28$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.282544%11 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Cheeki_Breeki26c94.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.135149%25 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked AVULUS50c91.95$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8411145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Cheeki_Breeki14c89.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9561.8%1 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-77%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11fa…ebf3backed AVULUS33c80$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.61631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked AVULUS29c80$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.870236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdfd…2f8ebacked AVULUS52c76.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+41.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Cheeki_Breeki53c68.12$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7933945.1%153 W · 186 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb609…3c8ebacked Cheeki_Breeki44c67.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked AVULUS50c65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7630138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10e4…4113backed AVULUS58c64.64$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.152882.1%23 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Cheeki_Breeki75c62.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.054445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd18b…876dbacked AVULUS79c62.09$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.09650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7070…bd47backed AVULUS49c58.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x086f…8bc3backed AVULUS18c58$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.564710.6%5 W · 42 L-12.0wins-0.25per pick36cpaid-70.7%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed Cheeki_Breeki58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910945%49 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a60…a571backed AVULUS26c49.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.92330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cheeki_Breeki67c46.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0160542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x802e…6c06backed AVULUS61c44.95$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.68560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+55.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a03…02a6backed Cheeki_Breeki45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef87…a71dbacked AVULUS49c41.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.025650%28 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc06c…2a86backed Cheeki_Breeki49c40.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked AVULUS49c37.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4878541.7%327 W · 458 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf04…3e9bbacked Cheeki_Breeki61c36.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf73d…80e7backed Cheeki_Breeki70c36.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.23540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-47.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Cheeki_Breeki43c30.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.38037.5%30 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Cheeki_Breeki58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x676e…79b6backed Cheeki_Breeki72c29.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a1e…6f16backed AVULUS45c26.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.625366%35 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Cheeki_Breeki54c25.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413557.8%78 W · 57 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6755…d3cfbacked AVULUS71c23.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a51…14bfbacked Cheeki_Breeki60c21.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x009a…339ebacked Cheeki_Breeki54c20.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa396…c0efbacked Cheeki_Breeki57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c82…5a52backed Cheeki_Breeki71c18.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1323459%138 W · 96 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.