Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla dip to $315 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x244c448620d9c8fc959e06c6e02ccfd5ead6b8ccf75d002aa51e2e00469e4a3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 14c | 1,397$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 77c | 457.82$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…8862backed Yes | 24c | 417.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 48c | 412.37$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.43 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 42c | 395.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.73 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 344$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 64c | 315$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 48c | 260.24$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 7c | 220.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 76c | 202.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…e39dbacked No | 65c | 199.47$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 43c | 165.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 29c | 145$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 26c | 143$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…5b68backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 36c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87eb…7976backed No | 78c | 64.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 21c | 63.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca9…f466backed No | 79c | 61.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked No | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…df58backed No | 63c | 37.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 51c | 37.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a23…da58backed No | 57c | 35.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…83cbbacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla dip to $315 in April?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $248 in April?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $285 in April?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $338 in April?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $360 in April?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in April?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $390 in April?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $405 in April?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $420 in April?No won
- Will Tesla reach $435 in April?No won
- Will Tesla reach $488 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.