Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla reach $420 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8069509414554b96fe85adb328f27ba39cfc9fc608ef9f673baa7df0d80f493e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 75c | 2,055$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.49 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 34c | 732.46$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.97 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 687$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…8862backed Yes | 18c | 567.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 15c | 513$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 19c | 448.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…346ebacked Yes | 13c | 299.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 76c | 261.43$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…8f64backed Yes | 60c | 208.28$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6985…afdfbacked No | 67c | 126.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed3…7ad4backed Yes | 25c | 124.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 32c | 117.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 20c | 94.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 13c | 84.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 45c | 81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 24c | 64.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70d4…16a1backed No | 65c | 63.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed97…5d0dbacked Yes | 24c | 61.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca9…f466backed No | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 66c | 53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -7.5wins | -0.26per pick | 50cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 28c | 43.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 43.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 40.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 37c | 39.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked No | 79c | 32.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 108 | 79.6%86 W · 22 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla reach $420 in April?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $248 in April?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $285 in April?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $315 in April?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $338 in April?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $360 in April?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in April?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $390 in April?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $405 in April?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $435 in April?No won
- Will Tesla reach $488 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.