TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Philadelphia Philliesof Cleveland Guardians, Philadelphia Phillies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,262
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,246

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,262 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies68c756.08$511 inWon+$245.466,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians34c746.13$253 inLost-$252.5712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Cleveland Guardians23c269.02$61 inLost-$61.2299924.6%246 W · 753 L-70.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Philadelphia Phillies70c145.99$102 inWon+$43.991,04051.8%539 W · 501 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Phillies68c100.5$68 inWon+$32.162,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Philadelphia Phillies70c96.81$68 inWon+$29.282,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Philadelphia Phillies74c96$71 inWon+$25.371,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Cleveland Guardians34c90.59$31 inLost-$31.11,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Cleveland Guardians29c80$23 inLost-$23.268942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies71c80$57 inWon+$23.22,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cleveland Guardians21c75$16 inLost-$15.753,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Philadelphia Phillies72c50.67$36 inWon+$14.2666056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians33c41$13 inLost-$13.466,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies67c30.6$20 inWon+$10.252,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc51…674abacked Philadelphia Phillies72c26.26$19 inWon+$7.359752.6%51 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies71c18.12$13 inWon+$5.28,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.