MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x660e29558f3268a7c49d33cb1b0c26e888f5ef05b77a4de523922cf0d362ccbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 11,931$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,930.62 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 6,810$3,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,811.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 4,971$2,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,882.96 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…6609backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 2,841$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…0b1bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 1,783$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.89 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 1,549$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.95 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 1,415$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 1,293$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.94 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…160cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 817.37$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.59 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 704.72$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.87 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 663.45$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 576.81$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 452.21$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 393.72$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.62 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 392.62$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.72 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 375$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 353.54$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.66 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 353$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.04 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 324.8$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.24 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 301.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 289.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 267.94$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.55 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 76c | 242.34$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 206.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 197.26$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 194.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.33 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 183.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Philadelphia Phillies | 23c | 162$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55a…448dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 154.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Cleveland Guardians | 76c | 145$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 102.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…f8c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 94.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Philadelphia Phillies | 14c | 91.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 79.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 65.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 64.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 58.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 55.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 37.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 20.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 19.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 18.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 17.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 17.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 16.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.