MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21527c2c7e8638a00408d9d04eaf3e51210bc3993093e531e0843e3ef116fa22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Over | 46c | 2,717$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 54c | 2,482$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.56 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 2,446$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 1,168$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.72 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.71 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Under | 55c | 900$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 782.97$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.33 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 18c | 702.49$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 510.82$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Under | 50c | 396$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 371.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.14 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 275$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 4c | 260.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb6…4fe4backed Under | 54c | 183.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 110.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 18c | 88.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 87.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 50c | 49.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Under | 49c | 43.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 43.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffc…a5b7backed Over | 46c | 31.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 49c | 29.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.