Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2485b6fbd034fb0051eda0b469bc11e1fcbf9105be6b447be2ac52230f73ff6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 6c | 710.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 443.14$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 33c | 360.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.63 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…a48dbacked No | 71c | 286.11$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 199.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 73c | 167.05$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.74 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 29c | 129.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 22c | 115.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 35c | 114.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 103.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 103.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 100.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 97.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 95.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 93.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked Yes | 58c | 90.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 66c | 88.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 72c | 76.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 21c | 71.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…1109backed No | 74c | 67.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 66.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed No | 72c | 63.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 57.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 56.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked No | 57c | 51.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 76c | 50.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 27c | 45.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 32c | 40.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 39.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 35c | 33.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc418…ec2bbacked Yes | 40c | 25.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 46c | 24.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 55c | 22.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 71c | 22.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.