Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x424f43abe5e3afaa77073025b23fd32d319c4d99dabc6d42519511059d19fee0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 19c | 216.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 184.22$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 71c | 145.32$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 37c | 126.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 124.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 121.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 22c | 112.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 14c | 106.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 24c | 105.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 98.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 31c | 95.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 16c | 94.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 16c | 72.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 28c | 69.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 47.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 23c | 47.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 71c | 43.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 34.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 70c | 30.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 74c | 28.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 27.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 25.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 68c | 22.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 78c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.