La Liga · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Sevilla end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x248daf7ee8e878143fedf391455252596b90517996da8719dc86e510e5323d42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 29c | 5,001$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.34 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 69c | 3,055$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.48 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 2,746$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.36 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 70c | 1,941$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.24 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked No | 71c | 1,759$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.11 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 11c | 1,100$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 49c | 827.91$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.42 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 31c | 697.61$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.18 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be7…4690backed Yes | 30c | 634.5$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…3428backed No | 71c | 634.17$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 618.19$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 610 | 32.3%197 W · 413 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 28c | 556$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.68 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 363.2$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 71c | 332$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 327.52$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.63 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…ea6cbacked Yes | 70c | 296.88$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2085…8ad2backed No | 71c | 188.82$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dab…3cc4backed Yes | 30c | 188.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 21c | 167.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 171 | 28.1%48 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 71c | 158$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 88 | 28.4%25 W · 63 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfa…b8f9backed No | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 31c | 135.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 71c | 125.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…7c33backed Yes | 45c | 108.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 60c | 84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 25c | 48.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 140 | 67.1%94 W · 46 L | +17.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 63c | 48.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 290 | 53.4%155 W · 135 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 58c | 21.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 144 | 62.5%90 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 76c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Sevilla end in a draw?this page
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-28?No won
- Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.